This upcoming weekend sees a variety ow world title fights but the one fight that really catches the eye is the fight between former WBA Light Welterweight champion Andriy Kotelnik and current unified WBC and IBF champion Devon Alexander, arguably the top of a very elite division. Although the bout has been criticised by various people around the world due to the other top fighters in the division that Alexander could have faced instead of Kotelnik, that's a different issue that we'll get to later. Instead of criticising the bout lets have a solid look at it in a preview.
The challenger is a former Olympic silver medal winner from the 2000 games in Athens, a technically capable Ukrainian fighter who although doesn't do anything exceptionally does everything well. Kotelnik carries a tight high guard, uses intelligent foot movement but limited in terms of speed which was notably shown up against Amir Khan who literally boxed rings around Kotelnik last year. Aggression isn't the key part of Kotelnik's fight style but it's the pressure he brings that can be problematic and although his work rate isn't particularly high he's accurate with what he throws which are often hurtful shots. His record of 31-3-1 (13KO's) shows several things, firstly that Kotelnik has hurtful power rather than power that really stops fighters in their tracks, stoppages in recent years have been hard to come by with only 2 stoppages since the start of 2004 (16 fights). Secondly Kotelnik has never been stopped, infact he's never been dropped as a professional, even the monster punching Marcos Maidana couldn't put him down. Finally, Kotelnik is difficult to look good against. His record doesn't paint the full story of how he's only been cleanly beaten once, and could very easily have had a record of 34-1 had he not been forced to fight away from home, losses to Junior Witter and Souleymane M'baye (as well as a draw with M'baye) could very easily have been scored towards Kotelnik. Though the fight with Khan, Kotelnik's most recent bout in July '09 was one sided.
It's worth adding that Kotelnik is approaching 33 and has been inactive for a year, he will also be making his US debut by going to the dragons den, Saint Louis, Missouri against the every improving champion. Alexander, promoted by Don King has seemingly come into his own in recent times, a double world champion at just 23 years old, arguably the top of the young American fighters. With a record of 20-0 (13) his record doesn't show impressive power though he's grown into his power spectacularly stopping his last 5 opponents and yet it's his speed that really stands him in good stead, not only does the champion have fantastic hand speed but he has the foot speed to match and a tremendous work rate. Able to box, fight and as he showed against Juan Urango when he annexed the IBF title, bang when he needs to with a very impressive range of shots highlighted by his tremendous uppercut. Although he's still flawed and was caught more than he would have wanted to be by the Urango he's been adding facets to his ability over the past few years with impressive wins against Junior Witter, Urango, Miguel Callist and DeMarcus “Chop Chop” Corley. Whilst still relatively inexperienced in terms of fight numbers, and rounds fought (106) Alexander has been a pro for over 6 years. Had it not been down to Don King it's almost certain that Alexander would have been much busier, though King has delivered with fights against Witter and Urango.
With a nickname of “The Great” Alexander will be wanting to put on a show in front of his home crowd, and this match appears to be custom made. Alexander is much faster, much younger (10 years) and much busier in the ring whilst Kotelnik has been out of the ring for over a year. It's these reasons the bout has been criticised, Khan made Kotelnik look slow and old and it's fair to assume that Devon will do the same to a rusty Kotelnik. Though the difference between Khan and Alexander will be shown up here, Khan fought a technical fight but one which has seen him criticised for fighting scared, Alexander will have a chance to show his aggressive streak. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Alexander will impressive us all more than anyone thought possible, I genuinely think that Devon CAN stop Kotelnik, and will attempt to late on. Whether he manages to or not is another matter, though he'll want to get one over on Khan and I see him succeeding.
Hopefully in his next fight Alexander will face one of the legitimate top rivals, either Marcos Maidana, Amir Khan or Timothy Bradley though irritatingly Khan seems to prefer to face Lightweights (and has mentioned facing Juan Manuel Marquez), Maidana has had contractual problems (which now seem to be getting resolved) and Timothy Bradley has seemed to feel he deserves a Mayweather or Pacquiao payday.
For those who like a flutter here's some odds: (Accurate at time of writing)
Winner:
Alexander-1/6 (Boylesports.com)
Draw-33/1(Bet365, Boylesports and Coral)
Kotelnik-5/1 (William Hill, Coral, Betfred and Sportingbet)
Method of victory:
Alexander points-9/10 (Boylesports.com)
Kotelnik points-10/1 (Sportingbet.com)
Alexander stoppage-2/1 (Ladbrokes)
Kotelnik stoppage-14/1(Bet365)
Over/Under.(9.5rounds)
Over 1/3 (bet365 and boylesports)
Under 9/4 (bet365 and boylesports)
